Jess Stafford, of Thurloe Thoroughbreds, gives her opinion on the curtain raiser of the turf season in the UK.
The flat season is finally upon us! Who was to imagine that by the end of March we would still be subject to waterlogging, frost and snow! The start of the flat season has suffered due to the adverse weather conditions but now a week later than originally intended, the Lincoln Meeting at Doncaster will kick off proceedings.
Doncaster is expected to be very soft on Saturday afternoon, and for these fresh horses it will be a test of stamina whether they will get home in the mud. The Lincoln Heritage Handicap over one mile is one of the most competitive races of the year and with a field of 22 going to post this year, its set to be a very interesting renewal.
The last couple of years have thrown up some big priced winners. Johnny Murtagh partnered Sweet Lightning in 2011 to win at 16/1 and last year Brae Hill prevailed at 25/1 under Tony Hamilton. BRAE HILL bids to win back-to-back Lincoln’s this year and now a seven year old and with some dismal performances at the end of last year, he is back down to an official rating of 95 the same he won off last year. He’s currently as big as 16/1 with most bookmakers but with the younger, less exposed horses against him I think he’ll need to be at his very best to get his head in front.
CAPTAIN BERTIE has been all the rage for this race and the hype around him has grown after his draw was announced as 7, close to the intended pacesetter, Chosen Character (goes from 13). He had a consistent enough season last year with a fine performance in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket where he was second to Bonnie Brae on heavy ground. He is a soft ground specialist and won the Spring Cup at Newbury last year with a number of the horses that run on Saturday behind him. He is currently a 5/1 shot but for me he is much too short to side with.
The Pearl Bloodstock operation found an interesting horse at last years Horses in Training Sales with CHAPTER SEVEN. The Stuart Williams trained four-year-old holds some interesting positives and having won on the soft ground at York at the end of the season he has proved he should handle the going. Added to this, 6 of the last 10 winners have been four-year-olds, a statistic that bodes well for this son of Excellent Art. Graham Lee, the jockey that has converted so successfully from the jumps to the flat, partners him and I think with a strong pace the hold up tactics they usually use for him will work in his favor. He is currently 10/1, possibly shortening all the time so would be worth getting on early!
The assumed pace setter, Chosen Character, would be worth an each way nibble at 25/1. He was in fine form all of last year and is another horse that relishes this softer going.
Best of Luck!
Jess x
Turf Talk 