In keeping with tradition, guest analyst, flat form guru, lothario and all round good guy James Ryan (@jamesryan1207) is back to give us his thoughts on the action at Meydan.

Born and raised a stones throw from the Curragh racecourse, James Ryan might as well be a horse. A shrewd judge with a penchant for loose women and “alt” pedigrees, the man’s word is good. He lives and breathes the industry and what he doesn’t know about equine form and function is probably not worth knowing, unless you are a vet or something. James is held in high regard by many high profile members of the industry and even Aidan O’Brien described him as “…the best horse I’ve ever trained..” recently. I have faith and so should you!!

Take it away Jimmy!

1.10 Godolphin Mile

This wide open renewal will see last years winner come up against some stern opposition. On ratings Soft Falling Rain is the joint highest rated and connections are delighted with the draw that he received. He had a blow out over 6 furlongs on his last start and one would hope that he improves a lot for that. It is a wide open race with him being a very good e/w bet at 4/1.

e/w Soft Falling Rain if 4/1 or better.

 

 1.45 Dubai Gold Cup

No one can deny that Cavalryman is the deserving favourite after he bolted up on his last start beating several who re-oppose in this race as well. At 11/4 he is a little on the short side for which will be a much more competitive renewal. Mr. Mullins has drafted in Pat Smullen to ride Simenon and this is a notable booking. I feel he needed the run the last day and I would be surprised if he was outside the first three in what is once again a very competitive renewal of the race.

E/w Simenon 6/1

 

2.25 UAE Derby

Long John absolutely bolted up in the 2000 guineas at Meydan 44 days ago. It is very hard to look past him after posting a very quick time in what was a very fast run race. He was very well regarded in Australia having one a group 1 for Peter Snowden before coming to Dubai. He really showed his class in the guineas and it would be very hard not to be impressed by that. At 7/4 the bookies may take a hit on him. Aidan is sending over Giovanni Boldini with big hopes but he will really be up against it battling against Long John.

Win Long John 7/4

 

3.03 Al Quoz Sprint

Shea Shea was the banker of the meeting last year and he won in convincing fashion however he is an extremely short price this year at 5/4. He was impressive in his first start after a lengthy absence. With the first two pulling away from the rest of the field. The horse in second that day was only a head behind Shea Shea and he is 12/1. So for that reason the obvious value in the race has to be Ahtoug who is also drawn beside Shea Shea and hopefully wont let him too far out of his sights.

E/w Ahtoug 12/1

 

3.40 Dubai Golden Shaheen

This is a very open Dubai Golden Shaheen with the draw going to pay a pivotal role, I believe. They roll into that first turn in Meydan sometimes cracking the 20 second mark for the first 2 furlongs so you don’t want to be drawn too wide. The favourite for the race, Rich Tapestry is an ex Dermot Weld trained horse and deserving favourite too, after he beat last years winner by a length in a Group 3, 21 days ago. However with the wide draw I would have to prefer the Satish Seemar trained horse Reynaldothewizard who ran an extremely good race to be second to Rich Tapestry in his last start. Drawn 5 I feel he will be there of there abouts come the finish line.

E/W Reynaldothewizard 5/1

 

4.39 Dubai Duty Free

This is by far the strongest race of the evening on paper with 9 of the representatives having an official rating over 115. The two joint highest rated in the field are Just A Way and The Fugue. Just A Way comes from the Naosuke Sugai yard from Japan. It is very hard to weigh up the Asian form when trying to compare it to the European form of The Fugue. However, I believe the handicapper has done a good job of giving her 123 as the thrashing of Gentildonna was a superstar performance. It was stated that Gentildonna was having a prep run that day but it was still a devastating performance. I do feel that The Fugue will be one of the best performers in Europe this season and over her perferred distance of 1m1f I believe she could be hard to beat. If there was an each way price of 4/1 on The Fugue I would gobble it up but at 7/2 she is still good value.

Win The Fugue 7/2

 

5.17 Dubai Sheema Classic

Another close affair between the top two in the market. The Japenese vs The Irish. Gentildonna vs Magician. Champion vs Rising Star. This time 12 months ago we got to see St. Nicholas Abbey at his very best when getting the best of Gentildonna. I believe Magician will do the same. His incredible performance in the Breeders Cup last year was a sensational race to have witnessed. His storming late run will hopefully get the better of Gentildonna.

Win Magician 3/1

 

6.05 Dubai World Cup

With no stand out superstar in this years World Cup it is an incredibly open affair. English Derby winner Ruler Of The World is ante post favorite but connections got dealt a blow when drawn 12/16. Once again it is quite difficult to way up the Asian form. (Hong Kong and Japan) A lot of these horses also don’t have a proven track record on this Tapeta surface either. It is for this reason that I think Prince Bishop offers the best value in the race. He has won his previous two starts here at Meydan this season and even as a 7 year old he seems to be improving. Kieran Fallon gets on extremely well with the horse having been 3/3 on him and I think he could run a big race and is way overpriced at 10/1 seen as there are a lot of questions to be answered about the surface for a lot of the others in the field.

E/W Prince Bishop 10/1

Best of Luck!

JR

So there you have it folks! Straight from the nag’s gob. Hopefully Jimmy will put us right!

Hope all is well! Things are quiet here at Turf Talk for the foreseeable future as lambing is in full swing with us at the minute! Talk to you on the other side. Regards to the family.

Slán tamaillín,

T

Well, well, well! We pulled that one out of the fire. Each way money on Rajdhani Express at 20’s was looking like all it was going to be on a very black Thursday at Prestbury Park. However, Robbie McNamara Esq with balls the size of the Naas Time Capsule was very handy on Spring Heeled in the lucky last and won by 1& 3/4 lengths. P Mullins also stayed on into fourth on Balnaslow for some more each way shekels. What was looking like being a nightmare of a day turned out to be a very pleasant surprise.

So now we turn our attention to the final day of the festival and hopefully can find a few tasty ones to end the week on a high!

JCB Triumph Hurdle 13:30 – It’s a well known trend that Irish horses have a poor record in the juvenile depart and Our Conor ended an 11 year Triumph drought for the Irish. With that in mind, there are still a number of horses that can have cases made on their behalf. Credit to Tim O’Mahony   (otherwise known as number 2) here who talked me into having a look at Pearl Castle. I have my suspicions about the Royal Irish Hussar/Guitar Pete form etc. Quinns horse is potentially being disrespected in the market because he only emerged on the jumps scene in January. You could do worse than back this fella each way. Thanks Tim!

Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle 14:05 – Important to note PP are paying 5 places. Two for an each way chance in a wide open renewal here. The first is Never Enough Time with the talented Ger Fox claiming weight. Coming into the race on an upward trend and could be still ahead of the handicapper. The other each way squeak lies with Flaxen Flare who carries a lot of weight but is extremely talented and, perhaps more importantly, consistent. He’ll run his race. 18/1 currently.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 14:40 – The Mullins novices seem to be firing on all cylinders and Briar Hill (nap) is thought to be the best of the bunch. Moss Park is a huge price for a live place chance – my each way saver.

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase 15:20 – Im stupid enough to take on Bobs Worth here, but I just think he could be beatable. Silviniaco Conti travelled strongly when falling in last years race and was a good winner of this seasons King George at Kempton Park. If he can stand up he should put Bobs Worth to the pin of his collar.

Cga Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup 16:00 – I love this race so much. A shame we don’t get to see Slasify attempt the hat trick but I’m sure the Sweeney family will try and have him back next term. Tammys Hill at his price is superb value to get the better of On the Fringe. Oscar Delta will attempt to right the wrongs of last year but this years form is very weak with the Mangan charge. Im on the Lennon horse each way.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 16:40 – Two for each way chances here again. Don Poli has been progressive and beat a good horse in Goonyella last time. Hopefully the ground suits. Im also a big fan of  The Sky Farmer who should go close for the Hobbs yard with James Best claiming 3 lbs. 16/1 for him is big.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup 17:15 – Mr. Mole has a solid chance here for the Nicholls team. Very consistent and has a good chance. Each way claims lie with Changing The Guard trained by one of the shrewdest trainers in the UK, Dr. Richard Newland.

So thats it for Day 4 and for the festival! Heres hoping we come out on top!

And for those of you who thought we were under pressure at one point today, never fear – Turf Talk’s here. Pressure’s for tyres!

Slán tamaillín,

T

As Matt Chapman would say; “Yeehaa!”. Today was a really lovely days punting and we made a decent few quid, and probably should have made more. 2 wins and 3/4 places depending on where you did you’re betting was a really nice pocket filler and confidence booster after what was a poor day 1. We hit the crossbar today with a few, notably, Orgilgo Bay who could have gone a lot closer had he not raced so keen, but we won’t shy away from the each way shillings at all!

Now we are back in profit, a word of warning before tomorrow. Thursday at the festival, as a rule, is a notoriously difficult day for punters to do well. The crux of what Im trying to say is basically if you’re up a few quid don’t go mad tomorrow. Go small/ each way on bigger prices. Thursday is the day for the freak results. Keep the powder dry for Friday or for a few pints at the weekend! It’s always nice feeling to walk away from Cheltenham up, so box clever.

Let’s have a gander at the card!

JLT Novices’ Chase 13:30 – An interesting encounter with several different angles to make a logical argument from. The word is Felix Yonger is in tip top form and the drying ground should suit. However, there field are fairly generously priced, reflecting the open nature of the race. An each way bet on stablemate Djackadam however tickles my fancy. He really was spectacular when jumping like a buck at Leopardstown. 10’s is very generous.

Pertemps Network Final 14:05 – This race is a prime example of why Thursday at the Cheltenham festival is a bitch of a day to make money. Josies Orders comes in off two wins on the bounce, a light weight and Maurice Linehan claiming 5. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is a McManus plunge horse tomorrow. Each way claims. An each way chance also lies with Seefood who has gone close a number of times this term. Interesting to see who takes the ride with Bryan Cooper injured.

Ryanair Chase 14:40 – Benefficient is a proper horse and has a good chance. Tony Martins haven’t run too well this week but Im hopeful. Rajdhani Express is overpriced and doesn’t have to improve too much to make the frame. Each way claims at a big price.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle 15:20 – A fascinating contest. Big Bucks is back to reclaim his title. In my opinion, after seeing older horses left in the wake of youthful exuberance over the last two days, he may be up against it. Annie Power seems to be bombproof, but hasn’t actually beaten too much on her way here. Her first real test is tomorrow. Connections say they haven’t really gotten to the bottom of her and don’t know how good she really is. Her mares allowance is vital and is the main reason Ive sided with her. Medinas is a very interesting outsider and is still open to improvement for a place chance.

Byrne Group Plate 16:00 –  Each way is the name of the game here me thinks. Sew On Target got 6 lbs for a great win at Sandown last time and was a good 4th at this track over a furlong farther back in January. Third Intention could also go well after finishing 3rd behind the RSA winner O’Faolains Boy at Ascot last time. Both each way.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase 16:40 – A tricky one again. Balnaslow put in a good shift when running 4th in a fiercely run Thyestes at Gowran Park on heavyish ground. The quicker stuff tomorrow should improve his each way chance. An each way squeak also goes to Spring Heeled who I would imagine connections are expecting a big run from at some point this season looking at his campaign route aiming at some big handicaps. Tomorrow could be the day.

So thats it for Day 3! Hopefully there are few more winners in there for us!

The very best of luck with your own selections! Hopefully you made a few quid today! Onward to tomorrow. For the love of racing! (and money!)

Slán tamaillín,

T

I think it goes without saying that today was a bookies dream. Apart from Vautour romping home in the fastest ever supreme, Champagne Fever getting chinned and Hurricane Fly a victim of younger legs on quicker than ideal ground were definitely results for the layers.

They say the golden rule of betting is to never chase your loses. I may have slightly breached that when I got stuck into Quevega, who helped stem the flow. An each way place on Vaniteux and Ataglance (should have won) also helped. Champagne Fever being beaten was a really bitter pill to swallow for me. He made the rest look average and was just beaten by a freak run from an rank outsider. Thats the game.

Sorry if you lost money at my fault today, but I can’t get it all right unfortunately!

They say the measure of a man is his resilience in the face of great adversity. With that in mind, I’m going to try and absolutely annihilate the bookies tomorrow.

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle 13:30 – My nap of the festival is Faugheen. I’ve fancied him for a good long while now. Josses Hill was second in the Supreme today. This lad beat him by 22l back in May. Stays well. Won over 3m last time. I’m very sweet on him. Red Sherlock is obviously the danger. Shanahan’s Turn is over priced in my opinion.

RSA Chase 14:05 – I have gone for Morning Assembly here. I think the fav is vulnerable and he is the best of the rest. It’s a poor grade 1 to be honest about it. Fahy’s charge was only a length and a half of Carlingford Lough the last day when well fancied. I think he should go well. Le Bec is a course and distance winner and is potentially over priced for an each way nibble.

Coral Cup 14:40 – A tricky race. I think Dell’ Arca has a solid each way shout in this. A close second in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury last time suggests that this fella has potential. Meister Eckhart also has a nice each way squeak.

BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase 15:20 – Although he is 12, it is very hard for me to see Sizing Europe outside the top three and would appeal to me as epic each way value. I can’t warm to the favourite at all. An open race in my opinion. Baily Green also goes with solid place claims.

Glenfarclas Handicap Chase 16:00 – Balthazar King really caught my eye when winning over this course and distance on goodish ground earlier this term. I’d give an each way shout to Love Rory who had a good win over the banks at Punchestown in November. To any Monkey members reading, you’d have given Immediate an auld each way squeak here too, for sure.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 16:40 – I think it’s fair to say that this is a minefield. I’ve gone for two each way shots here. The first is Orgilgo Bay off a feather weight. He was second to Battle of Marengo on the flat in the Beresford stakes once upon a time. He’ll love the drying ground surely. The other is Gordon Elliot’s Clarcam who has gotten close to some decent juveniles this term, whilst not being hugely impressive.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper 17:05 – Black Hercules heads up an embarrassingly good Mullins Bumper squad this year. He is my choice. It very easily could be a Graham Wylie 1,2. Getting them in the right order could be tricky but Im sticking with the son of Heron Island.

So thats it for for Day 2! Hopefully our luck improves!

When your lying in your bed tonight, lads, thinking about all the the money that you should have won on Champagne Fever today, remember that there is a long week ahead. Calculated bravery is required. And when the going gets tough and you feel like having a little weep to yourself, remember what The Cure said; “Boys Don’t Cry”.

Slán tamaillín,

T

 

Greetings one and all, from a sun bathed Kilkenny city, on this beautiful spring evening. To the regulars : “Whats the craic?”, to the infrequent visitors : “This is kind of like a booty call isn’t it?” and to the newbies : “Welcome to Turf Talk!”.

I can’t believe it’s been a whole year since the week of weeks that we had last year. If we can do half of what we did last year I will be a very very happy bunny.

It has arrived. The Cheltenham roller coaster is back to take us on another one of it’s notorious rides. It can go up, it can down, it can go round, it can even derail, but hopefully we can make the most of the spin and make a bean or two along the way.

I’m sure the high stool pontificators in the pubs up and down the country have made their feelings very clear as they drool into your ear over their umpteenth pint and there are endless numbers of professional opinion givers out there in the media, so thanks for taking my opinion into consideration too! I stress it’s only my opinion and not fact. Unfortunately, I can’t tell the future, although some may say that I can!

Hopefully we can find a few winners over the week and have a bit of craic along the way!

There is some fascinating racing on the cards, so even if you are a once-a-year punter or a genuine know it all, you will be enthralled by the action at Prestbury Park over the next four days!

Tomorrow is an absolute HUMDINGER of a day, with some top class equine tussles taking place as horses, jockeys, trainers and owners all vie for their place in the history books. And all of this is on show for your punting pleasure. Mmmmmmm, pleasure.

Lets cut the bull, I’m going in…

Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 13:30 – A middling renewal compared to last years race. I thought Irving looked very sharp at the beginning of the season when winning at Taunton. However, favourites rarely do themselves justice in the supreme so I’ve looked elsewhere. I feel it would be foolish of me not to mention that Paddy Power are offering money back if you’re horse is 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Even if you have an each way bet your horse is placed, you get your place winnings and your losing win stake back (up to €50). Crazy. I’ve gone for two each way shots here. Gilgamboa, trained by Enda Bolger, really impressed when winning the Boylesports Hurdle at Leopardstown. I wasn’t the only one impressed as the handicapper gave him 12lbs for that win. He also won over 2 and a half at Punchestown, which is something I love to see. You probably need to stay a little further than the trip to win the Supreme and this lad does it well. I also have had a nibble at Nicky Henderson’s Vaniteux. Impressive when winning over an extended 2m 3f at Doncaster. He hasn’t really beaten much, but I suspect is improving sharply and has a right each way shout.

Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 14:05 – As most of you know, course form at Cheltenham is an excellent pointer for finding winners at the festival. I tipped him for the Champion Bumper, I tipped him for the Supreme, Champagne Fever has won me more money than any horse ever in my entire life. I love the sire. All his stock seem to have a high cruising speed as this lad has. He hasn’t got the form in the book over the bigger obstacles, I know, but he won one of the best Supreme Novice’s of the modern era. He ran well, when thumping the second last at Leopardstown last time. It may be my heart getting the better of my head, but if he travels well he should have the measure of these tomorrow. Rock on Ruby is his main danger in my opinion. Grandouet  is overpriced for an each way place at 10’s.

Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase 14:40 – A competitive handicap. I’ve gone for two each way shots again. Alfie Sherrin won the JLT Handicap chase at the festival in ’12 and has shown he is pretty sharp around Cheltenham more than once. Hopefully he can handle his weight. Wrong Turn has an each way shout too. Ultra progressive, and still ahead of the handicapper I would imagine. A solid chance.

Champion Hurdle 15:20 –

 My Tent or Yours – needs a flat track.

The New One – shite bag.

Jezki – fiddles his hurdles when the pressure is on.

Our Conor – potentially excellent. Still young. Won what has turned out to be a below average Triumph – hasn’t won since. Main threat.

Hurricane Fly – The champ. 3/1 is insulting. Bravest horse in the race by some way which counts for a lot in the Champion.

If Our Conor improves a stone, like Hughes thinks he will, he should win by a mile. If not the Fly will remain the Champion Hurdler.

OLBG Mares’ Hurdle 16:00 – Quevega will pull off an amazing achievement when she wins her 6th consecutive mares hurdle. Sirene D’Anay is a nice each way price to chase home the Mullins horse.

Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase 16:40 – Nina takes the ride on Shutthefrontdoor who has a nice bit of form in the book and goes well on the track. 7/2 is a little skinny though. Each way play on Living Next Door. Tony Marin has booked top Irish point to point jock Jamie Codd. Interesting that they think he’ll get 4m. He’s lost his way a little but he can find a bit of form he should be there, thereabouts swinging for home.

Rewards4Racing Novices’ Handicap Chase 17:15 – Art Of Logistics gets the nod here, each way. Credible effort in a grade 1 at Christmas and well able over the big obstacles. First time visor should sharpen him up a touch. Each way chance also lies with Attaglance. A good 4th behind an impeccable John’s Spirit at the track in the Paddy Power Gold Cup earlier this season is what leads me to believe this lad has potential for a big run.

So that’s it for Day 1. Hopefully there are a few winners in there somewhere! 

The very best of luck with your selections!

Slán tamaillín,

T