A good kicking from the bookies was dished out to yours truly, bar Up for Review who came in at a short price in the bumper, but he was never going to save the day yesterday. Road to Riches romping home in the Lexus rubbed salt in the wounds as I talked myself out of backing him only the night before.
Anyhow, enough of the sob stories! Apologies for the tardiness of this blog but I fell foul of an awful does of man flu yesterday and was in no shape to be looking at form!
For what it’s worth, here’s a quick fire look at today’s card!
12:20 Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Chase – Oliver McKiernan’s On the Shannon is the market leader and is fancied to do the business off a light weight and with Shane Crimin claiming a few more off his back.
12:55 Copper Face Jacks Maiden Hurdle – Windsor Park sets the standard here but I’ve backed Rogue Trader each way who is talented and still unexposed. 12’s could be a big price.
13:25 Ryanair Hurdle (Grade 1) – This could be the last time I ever back Hurricane Fly. But over this course and distance he’s bloody hard to beat.
14:00 Ryanair E.B.F. Novice Handicap Hurdle – Some progressive types and some not so progressive types in this. I’ve taken a chance on Lord Scoundrel who could go well for in form connections. Seems to be lazy in front, but enjoys a cut and just does enough when he gets there.
14:35 Ifg/willis E.B.F. Mares Hurdle (grade 3) – Princess Leya heads the betting after her win the last day was franked by a good win from Shantou Ed. She got 17lbs from the handicapper for that and steps up to this level. I couldn’t have her at the price. On official ratings Analifet would have a fair bit in hand over these, but a disappointing racecourse return after injury the last day leaves questions to be answered. A significant challenger is Fairytale Theatreof Dan Skelton’s. However, Carraigmoorna Rock was impressive when readily winning a listed contest at Newbury for Robert Tyner the last day and this could be well within her range.
15:05 Topaz Novice Chase (Grade 1) – A great race that could hold a Cheltenham clue or two. Interesting that Cooper and Carberry have over looked Cheltenham festival winner Very Wood. A legitimate case can be made for each, but one I like at the price is Apache Stronghold who could go well if he receives a slightly quieter ride than he did the last day.
15:35 Ryanair Flat Race – I’ve been impressed with Finian McGrath’s riding over the last couple of days and he looks valuable for his 7lb claim. Vigil will benefit greatly from that and is one for the Lucky 15.
Nina gets up on Russian Bill in the shadow of the post!
Ahoy there folks. A brace of winners in the shape of Special Tiara at Kempton and Russian Bill in the lucky last at Leopardstown today.
Apart from that, pretty bleak. It was a bit of a blood bath for punters today in general, so hopefully we can regroup and consolidate tomorrow!
Listen up!
12:15 At The Races Maiden Hurdle – Snow Falcon has the form in the book to justify 13/8 favouritism after coming second to Milsean the last day on the back of another two good runs. However, considering conditions, and the results the ground has produced, I’m going to look elsewhere. Considering the form of Dessie McDonoughs and the good run behind a classy Drumacoo the last day, Pack the Punch catches the eye at 5/1. I realise he is unproven on the ground but the other two of his got through it so well, it’s like they are being trained on a deep surface at home that this ground doesn’t seem to bother them too much. It’s a guess, but a guess I’m willing to take at the price.
12:50 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle – Kashline looks well treated returning to the smaller obstacles. Headgear for the first time and a feather weight could see him run well at a nice each way price. Triplets Joy also looks like an improver and, whilst this is a step up, he was a beaten favourite 9 days ago so must be in some sort of form for connections to fancy him.
13:20 Ballymaloe Original Country Relish Beginners Chase – On hurdles form, Un Atout should find this relatively straightforward. After spending a long time off the track since his last run, he is also entitled to improve a fair bit. Le Vent D’Antan also shaped well on chasing debut, but had his flaws too. The one I’ve gone for, for the sake of value, is Balbir Du Mathan who shaped well when coming down at the second last on his chasing debut. Connections obviously rate him and he will have hopefully learned a bit from his mistakes.
13:50 Squared Financial Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) – An open enough betting heat at the minute. Briar Hill makes his racecourse return since falling in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival. Significant that Ruby goes for Zaidpour, but Briar Hill has buckets of class and is superb value at 4/1. If he’s fit he surely has a great chance. That is the question though!
14:20 Irish Daily Star Christmas Novice Handicap Hurdle – Shabra’s Bertolini is in the form of his life at the minute and could go well here again for connections. Meanwhile Dollar and A Dream makes for an interesting handicap debutant for Tony Martin and the same people who own Beneficient. If they want to go anywhere bigger and better, handicap wise, towards the end of the season, let’s just say this could be a prime opportunity to increase their mark and just creep into the bottom of the weights for some of those races. He could also just be a yak!
14:55 Lexus Chase (Grade 1) – A humdinger. I would be all over Road to Riches on better ground, but alas, it has gone against him, me thinks. It’s Lord Windemere for me with expected improvement from a promising racecourse return last time. Could on On His Own be the each way bet of the century? 25’s with PP as I write.
15:25 Thornton’s Recycling Flat Race – They haven’t even come close to a bumper winner yet this week, but PWM and WPM team up with the 4/6 fav Up For Review in this. The vibes are good.
Noel Fehily steals a glance as Silviniaco Conti goes clear in the King George.
Not a shabby start to the week at all with a few very nice each way places in Leopardstown, Stellar Notion making all and Silviniaco Conti jumping like a buck to win the King George.
The account balance is looking well and hopefully we can make it look even better tomorrow.
Let’s crack on.
12:15 Paddy Power ‘Number 1 For Live Streaming’ 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle – Considering the rain that has fallen today, the ground will be very testing again tomorrow and when making selections it will be crucial to find a horse that will handle a cut. Business Sivola might just be another Mullins favourite to the untrained eye, but a French bred horse will definitely have the upper hand tomorrow. He ran into a place at Auteil on heavy on debut and was beat by a mudlark in Prussian Eagle at Gowran last time. That form, while it isn’t stellar, could be enough to win this considering the conditions. He’ll be short and maybe it’s a little unoriginal from me, but he’ll be carrying my money.
12:50 Paddy Power Maiden Hurdle (5YO plus) – Silver Concorde makes his debut over obstacles. This is a bit of a non event in my eyes and it doesn’t really make me want to have a bet at all. I might just leave him off and see if he looks like a horse for the Supreme Novices. No Bet.
13:20 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase (Grade 1) – I was really taken by the way Uxizandre won the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham a few weeks back. Probably one of the best rounds of jumping put in by any horse this season, bar maybe Silviniaco Conti in the King George! He handles a cut well and 5/2 or better would definitely catch my attention. The each way bet/betting without the fav option of the race is Mallowney without a shadow of a doubt. Way over priced at 16’s in my opinion.
13:50 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – Already a Grade 1 winner, Nichols Canyon surprised a lot of people when picking up the pieces nicely in a race that was perhaps overshadowed by the untimely passing of his stable mate, and short priced fav on the day, Allez Collombiere. However, the Wylie horse is classy enough and handled bad ground well in France during his flat career. He’s the one they have to beat, for sure.
14:20 Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle – I have a soft spot for Busted Tycoon. I backed her the three times she won on the bounce at the Galway festival in 2013 and I’ll tell you one thing, that mare payed for some amount of drink that week! However, I can’t be tipping all the favourites, now can I?! You’ll allow me two against the field surely! The first is Ned Buntline who showed promise once upon a time, and interestingly reverts back to the smaller obstacles for this. The other is Pivot Bridge, who’s second the last day has been franked by a few who have come put and run well since. Both each way depending on the price you get.
14:55 Paddy Power Chase – Talk about a mine field! Two again, at prices. The first is Wrong Turn of Tony Martin’s. A battle hardened handicapper, who stays all day and off a feather weight. Wont mind a test in the surface either. The other is The Westerner Boy for Mark Walsh and Colm Murphy in the colours of JP.
15:30 Paddy Power iPad App Flat Race – Another race that I’m sure will cough up plenty of winners in time. The one I like at the minute is Russian Bill for Noel and Nina. This dynamic bumper duo often go under the radar in the betting, and the same could happen tomorrow. This horse has ability, without doubt, and he could go off at a decent price too.
So thats it for day 2 folks. Hopefully we can stay on the up and up!
Don’t forget if you fancy a few bets in Kempton and Chepstow myself, Ruby Walsh, Matt Chapman and the Paddy Power racing traders have put something together on the Paddy Power Blog.
The Leopardstown gets underway tomorrow with some great racing in store!
“Gooot on a luuuuuucky ooone, caaaaame in eighteeeeeen to oooooone”….well we can dream I suppose!
Howdy folks, it really has been too long. I hope this finds you in fine festive fettle. I thoroughly enjoy this time of year, not the build up really, but the big day itself. I usually avoid the hype where possible. Low key, that’s me.
With the advent of Christmas (zingggg), the National Hunt scene ramps up a few gears with all eyes not only trying to pick out winners over the next few days, but also a few Cheltenham clues along the way.
This is where I tend to start formulating my Cheltenham views, especially for the handicaps. A lot of them might not run again beforehand to protect their mark so I’ll be on the lookout for any eye-catchers – both good and bad – over the Christmas.
Anyway, I’ll be on here for the four days of Leopardstown, typing out my own incoherent ramblings and hopefully those ramblings will result in a winner or two!
*PLUG ALERT*PLUG INCOMING*: Incase you haven’t noticed I have also been putting up some tips for the bigger Channel 4 races on the Paddy Power blog. I have had mixed results on there so far, but Ruby Walsh, Matt Chapman and one of the PP racing traders are also tipping away and we generally have ground out a few winners between us each week so it might be worth having a gander from time to time. You can have a look at the PP blog for tomorrows racing at Kempton and Weatherby by clicking this link: http://blog.paddypower.com/2014/12/23/tv-tips-sheet-heres-boxing-day-racing-tips-for-right-from-the-brains-of-experts/?area=blog_homepage_topstories&button=tv-tips-sheet-heres-boxing-day-racing-tips-for-right-from-the-brains-of-experts
*PLUG PLUG PLUGGEDY PLUGGY PLUG* OK I’m done now!
So I guess after all that you want a few tips or at least an opinion, don’t you? You greedy fecker. Alright, here goes.
12:15 Bewleys Hotels Maiden Hurdle – Well at the minute you have a Willie Mullins hot pot, odds on 10/11, for JP having his first run after being bought out of France on the back of a run in Fontainebleu. This is a hot race, and at that price I simply have to look elsewhere. He may be talented, but I haven’t seen enough to warrant a punt. The next few in the market look like they could be good too. The one I’m going for is Ordinary World for Henry De Bromhead and Robbie Colgan. He put Milsean, who is highly thought of and was long odds on on the day, to the pin of his collar up in Navan last time to be beaten by only two lengths on his debut. While betting in maiden hurdles is guess work anyway, that form in the book makes mine a slightly more educated one. At the price, you’ve a good chance to be in the mix anyway and is entitled to improve from the last day. The only drawback is that all of the money so far has been for Willie’s, but the market hasn’t livened up yet I suppose.
12:50 Thornton’s Recycling Maiden Hurdle – I just watched the Champion bumper replay there. Joshua Lane has changed hands since coming third there and now runs for JP at 11/10 in this. I’ve gone for Tony Martin’s Velvet Maker, however, who has a bit of race fitness on his side after coming second to Rock the World the last day. Adrian Heskin is in the plate for Barry Connell.
13:20 Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) – Kalkir is the 1/3 favourite for WPM and, for me, the betting opportunities lie in the betting without markets and the forecast. One I have a hunch about is Prussian Eagle. At the price he definitely has a place chance, but he wants the ground to be very testing, I would imagine, which he may not get. At the price, though he could be a bit of value.
13:50 Cardinal Capital Handicap Hurdle – Spacious Sky is the jolly here and you always have to be wary of a Tony Martin horse at the bottom of the weights. With Shane Shortall claiming 5 he surely has a great chance, but 3/1 in a handicap like this is a bit skinny. I’ve gone for two each way shots here, the first being Bank Bonus for Eoin Griffin. Johnny Burke claims a few and he was fancied the last day when not firing. Could have a place chance. The other I have a slight inclination for is the long shot of Gordon Elliot’s Rocky Wednesday. Currently a 25/1 shot, he won at this meeting last year off a higher mark. He’s no world beater by any stretch and his current form has been absolutely cat, but he is very capable of running a good race off a nice mark at a very big price. Could run stink, but I’m having a few speculative quid each way. Cooper rides for Sandra Hughes, bit I’d imagine Elliot is happy enough to allow Dempsey claim 5 anyway. Watch the market.
14:20 Racing Post All You Need For Irish Racing Handicap Chase – Wide open. A tricky enough one to figure out too. One that catches my eye on his handicap chase bow is Empresario who has had a couple of pipe openers on the flat at Dundalk, no less. Low in the weights and has ability over obstacles, could have an each way squeak as long as he gets 2m 1f! I won’t be getting involved in a serious way, however.
14:55 Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 1) – Vautour looks special. Put Clarcam in the forecast and you have a bet. I’ll be sitting back and scrutinising with a few ante post festival bets already made.
15:25 Donohue Marquees Flat Race – This could be a hot little bumper. Some of the outsiders should not be ruled out. I’ve often been told that bumpers at Leopardstown can often pan out to favour horses with a flat pedigree and a bit of class about them. Obviously the Magnier/Mullins combo catches the eye, but will be no value on racecourse debut. However, Falcon Crest was second on debut to Bordini, the current Champion Bumper joint favourite, by just shy of 3 lengths. No doubt he’ll improve. If the market speaks for Fist Figaro he should not be discounted either as DKW is a dab hand at picking up bumpers with well these well bred types, namely Silver Concorde and Forgotten Rules. I’ll be backing the latter for the sake of a price, but wouldn’t be surprised if both are in the mix.
A quick line on the King George: Silviniaco Conti is a very difficult horse to beat at Kempton. I fancy him to retain his crown. I also fancy Champagne Fever not to stay. That’s difficult for me to say as I am one of his biggest fans. I fancy him to not stay, be dropped back to two miles, run in the Queen Mother and if Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy don’t show up, have a very good chance indeed. He’s 14’s at the minute for that and I think it could be a great bet before the King George. I stand to be corrected, however, and hope he can run well!
So that’s it for day 1 folks! Fingers crossed we can pick up a few quid tomorrow and get off to a good start!
Turf Talk 