On a wet and dreary Thursday it’s all becoming very much apparent that the summer has abandoned us at long last and we are now into the short days and long nights of Autmun/Winter. The jumps are back which definitely consoles the soul but there are a few minor flat matters to be attended to before we get our teeth into the National hunt season.

These include British Champions Day, The Breeders Cup, The Melbourne Cup, but perhaps most pressing of all, The Prix De L’Arc De Triompe. Yes in a matter of hours Arc Weekend will be upon us with a plethora of group races on show for our punting pleasure. Arc day is a magical experience. Racing at it’s best with a quintessential Parisian atmosphere, where the women strut and the champagne flows. If Jesus was a punter he wouldn’t move the Arc to Heaven, he’d come to Paris

I’m lucky enough to be going to Longchamp and, to be honest, I am ridiculously excited (verging on aroused) at the prospect of this years Arc. A race of this year’s magnitude will be one for the history books and the opportunity to see it in the flesh is a humbling one for a racing nerd like myself. How can you make such a brilliant day even better?? Find the winners…

Hold on people, I’m going in.

NOTE: At the time of writing the draw for any race has not been made yet and the current going in Longchamp is advertised as Good to Soft. I’m flying out early tomorrow morning so if I want to change a few things depending on draws etc keep an eye on Twitter.

12:45 – QATAR PRIX DE L´ABBAYE DE LONGCHAMP (Group 1):

This sprinting contest is always an interesting one. Robert Cowell has carved out a niche for himself as an master handler of sprinters and he presents the market leader here in the form of Jwala, currently around the 6/1 mark. A good win at York last time ahead of top sprinter Shea Shea warrants the favouritism. Paddy Power are 5/1 favourite Sole Power, the Irish money generally comes for an Irish horse. I’m a bit of a chicken when it comes to these sprints and I generally look for a bigger priced horse to play each way. One that catches my eye is Dutch Masterpiece who has been a pretty useful nursery and handicap performer in his career to date. He came over to the Curragh last time and nicked a Group Three. Admittedly this is a big step up in class but the layers are obviously a little wary of him at 10/1 best price. Some of you may be turned off by the fact he’s a 3YO competing against older horses but that doesn’t bother me too much. Another for a small bet at a big price is Kingsgate Native who, on his day, can go with the best.

1:20 – TOTAL PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC – CRITERIUM DES POULICHES (Group 1 Fillies): I’m a big fan of Sandiva and thought she did it really well in the Albany at Ascot. However, she has never raced on ground that has a bit of give in it. The Rouget trained Lesstalk in Paris, is unbeaten on the typical French ground with a bit f cut in it. The Cape Cross filly is 4/1 market leader. I’m siding with the Hannon charge, however. This daughter of Footstepsinthesand is travelling at her optimum trip of a mile for the first time and I think might do the favourite.

1:55 – QATAR PRIX JEAN-LUC LAGARDERE (Grand Criterium) (Group 1 2yo Colts & Fillies): Outstrip is the current 6/4 fav, the highlight of who’s form is probably a very close second behind the exciting Toormore. I’m not fully taken by this race as a betting prospect. If I do have a bet I will probably take on the favourite with Karakonite, the winner of the Gr.3 Prix La Rochette last time.

2:30 – PRIX DE L´OPERA LONGINES (Group 1 Fillies & Mares): This race isn’t priced up yet. I’m presuming Tasaday will be a principle after her third behind the impressive Treve in the Prix Vermeile. The Ralph Beckett trained Secret Gesture was third behind The Fugue, who was imperious in the Yorkshire Oaks and Irish Champion Stakes most recently. Tasaday’s bridesmaid Sparkling Beam will probably be up there in the market as well. It’s pretty difficult for me to make a call without a price to go by but if there’s any value in her I’ll probably go with Secret Gesture who has hit the cross bar on numerous occasions this season. Each way players can look to Gifted Girl who has consistently improved this term.

3:15 – QATAR PRIX DE L´ARC DE TRIOMPHE (Group 1 3yo+ Colts, Fillies & Mares): The main event. You can make a case for most of these. I have had a few sleepless nights over this race and the following musings are the fruits of my labour. Orfevre is without doubt a great horse. Should have an Arc to his name already in fact, when in last years race hitting the front, not having the mental ability to focus and get the job finished, and got done on the line by Solemnia. He seems not to be a straightforward animal. Whispers on the wind of a burst blood vessel on the gallops a while back also worry me. While he won the Prix Foy in some style, it was, in my opinion, a poor trial, with a poor run from Dunaden leaving little else to really challenge the Japanese horse. With that in mind, and the fact that he is 5/2, I cannot have the favourite here. The fact the Croquette Head-Maarek had not originally got the Arc in mind this season for the speedy filly Treve, and seems to have been perhaps coerced by connections to supplement her is enough for me to be turned off. Treve will have big days, no doubt, but I cannot see one of them being Sunday.

I’m not going to get into huge detail about every horse, and why I’m not backing them but just to give you an idea of the “ridiculousness” of the race I’ve overlooked Kizuna (Japanese Derby and Prix Niel winner), Intello (Prix du Prince D’Orange and Prix du Jockey Club winner), Flintshire (Grand Prix de Paris winner), Ruler of The World (Epsom Derby winner), Al Kazeem (Tatts Gold Cup, Prince of Wales’ and Eclipse winner), The Fugue (Yorkshire Oaks and Irish Champion Stakes winner) and Ocovango (Prix Greffuhle winner).

The shrewd amongst you will have now surely noted the two major omissions I have made. Yes, I have decided to go with Novellist for this years Arc. Although workmanlike at Baden Baden in Germany last time, his track-record-breaking win at Ascot dismisses that. The Jockey is uber confident, and with the season he’s having it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Johnny Murtagh was first home in this year’s Arc. His strike rate is phenomenal this year. I’ve backed Novellist to win. I have also made an each way play on St. Leger hero Leading Light. He gets every ounce of the trip no doubt. Some people say he’s as slow as a boat, and to be fair he’s not the fastest. However, in a rough race, which the Arc often is, under a confident ride from Gerald Mosse, he could have every chance coming to the line! The confident ride is a key factor. He’s not quick enough to come from off the pace…bounce him out in front Gerald and let’s see what he can do! Super each way value.

4:40 – QATAR PRIX DE LA FORET (Group 1 3yo+): Moonlight Cloud is the even money favourite here coming into the race off three wins in the spin. This horse is probably still most famous for nearly doing Black Caviar at Ascot when Luke Nolen was being a fool and nearly pulled her up. The fav is a shade of odds on here with some firms. Gordon Lord Byron or Viztoria don’t really interest me as alternatives. For some reason, call me crazy, Gale Force Ten sticks out at me for an each way bet. A little unreliable, but that win in the Jersey showed something. Would probably prefer quicker ground. I don’t rate Garswood. Just thought I’d throw that in in case you were wondering.

5:10 – QATAR PRIX DU CADRAN (Group 1 4yo+): At this point in the day I plan to be either “Happy jarred” or “Sad jarred”. Either way, I’m sure you can comprehend my sentiments towards the outcome of this race…. Admittedly my knowledge of European stayers is fairly limited and I’m sure you can find much more accurate info elsewhere. However, for what its worth, Altano catches the eye for a bit of value.

So that is it! I’m up at 4am to begin the journey. There is a “Turf Talk Live” of sorts in O’Sullivan’s by The Mill, beside the Moulin Rouge, tomorrow night around 7 or 8. Plenty of Irish there so call in and say hello. See you in Paris!!

Slán tamaillín,

T