“Gooot on a luuuuuucky ooone, caaaaame in eighteeeeeen to oooooone”….well we can dream I suppose!
Howdy folks, it really has been too long. I hope this finds you in fine festive fettle. I thoroughly enjoy this time of year, not the build up really, but the big day itself. I usually avoid the hype where possible. Low key, that’s me.
With the advent of Christmas (zingggg), the National Hunt scene ramps up a few gears with all eyes not only trying to pick out winners over the next few days, but also a few Cheltenham clues along the way.
This is where I tend to start formulating my Cheltenham views, especially for the handicaps. A lot of them might not run again beforehand to protect their mark so I’ll be on the lookout for any eye-catchers – both good and bad – over the Christmas.
Anyway, I’ll be on here for the four days of Leopardstown, typing out my own incoherent ramblings and hopefully those ramblings will result in a winner or two!
*PLUG ALERT*PLUG INCOMING*: Incase you haven’t noticed I have also been putting up some tips for the bigger Channel 4 races on the Paddy Power blog. I have had mixed results on there so far, but Ruby Walsh, Matt Chapman and one of the PP racing traders are also tipping away and we generally have ground out a few winners between us each week so it might be worth having a gander from time to time. You can have a look at the PP blog for tomorrows racing at Kempton and Weatherby by clicking this link: http://blog.paddypower.com/2014/12/23/tv-tips-sheet-heres-boxing-day-racing-tips-for-right-from-the-brains-of-experts/?area=blog_homepage_topstories&button=tv-tips-sheet-heres-boxing-day-racing-tips-for-right-from-the-brains-of-experts
*PLUG PLUG PLUGGEDY PLUGGY PLUG* OK I’m done now!
So I guess after all that you want a few tips or at least an opinion, don’t you? You greedy fecker. Alright, here goes.
12:15 Bewleys Hotels Maiden Hurdle – Well at the minute you have a Willie Mullins hot pot, odds on 10/11, for JP having his first run after being bought out of France on the back of a run in Fontainebleu. This is a hot race, and at that price I simply have to look elsewhere. He may be talented, but I haven’t seen enough to warrant a punt. The next few in the market look like they could be good too. The one I’m going for is Ordinary World for Henry De Bromhead and Robbie Colgan. He put Milsean, who is highly thought of and was long odds on on the day, to the pin of his collar up in Navan last time to be beaten by only two lengths on his debut. While betting in maiden hurdles is guess work anyway, that form in the book makes mine a slightly more educated one. At the price, you’ve a good chance to be in the mix anyway and is entitled to improve from the last day. The only drawback is that all of the money so far has been for Willie’s, but the market hasn’t livened up yet I suppose.
12:50 Thornton’s Recycling Maiden Hurdle – I just watched the Champion bumper replay there. Joshua Lane has changed hands since coming third there and now runs for JP at 11/10 in this. I’ve gone for Tony Martin’s Velvet Maker, however, who has a bit of race fitness on his side after coming second to Rock the World the last day. Adrian Heskin is in the plate for Barry Connell.
13:20 Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) – Kalkir is the 1/3 favourite for WPM and, for me, the betting opportunities lie in the betting without markets and the forecast. One I have a hunch about is Prussian Eagle. At the price he definitely has a place chance, but he wants the ground to be very testing, I would imagine, which he may not get. At the price, though he could be a bit of value.
13:50 Cardinal Capital Handicap Hurdle – Spacious Sky is the jolly here and you always have to be wary of a Tony Martin horse at the bottom of the weights. With Shane Shortall claiming 5 he surely has a great chance, but 3/1 in a handicap like this is a bit skinny. I’ve gone for two each way shots here, the first being Bank Bonus for Eoin Griffin. Johnny Burke claims a few and he was fancied the last day when not firing. Could have a place chance. The other I have a slight inclination for is the long shot of Gordon Elliot’s Rocky Wednesday. Currently a 25/1 shot, he won at this meeting last year off a higher mark. He’s no world beater by any stretch and his current form has been absolutely cat, but he is very capable of running a good race off a nice mark at a very big price. Could run stink, but I’m having a few speculative quid each way. Cooper rides for Sandra Hughes, bit I’d imagine Elliot is happy enough to allow Dempsey claim 5 anyway. Watch the market.
14:20 Racing Post All You Need For Irish Racing Handicap Chase – Wide open. A tricky enough one to figure out too. One that catches my eye on his handicap chase bow is Empresario who has had a couple of pipe openers on the flat at Dundalk, no less. Low in the weights and has ability over obstacles, could have an each way squeak as long as he gets 2m 1f! I won’t be getting involved in a serious way, however.
14:55 Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 1) – Vautour looks special. Put Clarcam in the forecast and you have a bet. I’ll be sitting back and scrutinising with a few ante post festival bets already made.
15:25 Donohue Marquees Flat Race – This could be a hot little bumper. Some of the outsiders should not be ruled out. I’ve often been told that bumpers at Leopardstown can often pan out to favour horses with a flat pedigree and a bit of class about them. Obviously the Magnier/Mullins combo catches the eye, but will be no value on racecourse debut. However, Falcon Crest was second on debut to Bordini, the current Champion Bumper joint favourite, by just shy of 3 lengths. No doubt he’ll improve. If the market speaks for Fist Figaro he should not be discounted either as DKW is a dab hand at picking up bumpers with well these well bred types, namely Silver Concorde and Forgotten Rules. I’ll be backing the latter for the sake of a price, but wouldn’t be surprised if both are in the mix.
A quick line on the King George: Silviniaco Conti is a very difficult horse to beat at Kempton. I fancy him to retain his crown. I also fancy Champagne Fever not to stay. That’s difficult for me to say as I am one of his biggest fans. I fancy him to not stay, be dropped back to two miles, run in the Queen Mother and if Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy don’t show up, have a very good chance indeed. He’s 14’s at the minute for that and I think it could be a great bet before the King George. I stand to be corrected, however, and hope he can run well!
So that’s it for day 1 folks! Fingers crossed we can pick up a few quid tomorrow and get off to a good start!
A very happy Christmas to you and yours!
Slán tamaillín,
T
Turf Talk 