I’m in a bit of a rush this morning so I’m afraid this is going to be brief. I’m driving across to Galway today for racing this evening and tomorrow!
Yesterday was a tough day for me. Don’t Tell No One saved the day in the last for the owner/breeder Brian Gleeson from RTÉ and replenished my pockets!
I’ll quickly run through the card!
17:05 – Guinness 17:59 EBF Fillies Maiden – Dermot Weld is represented by Backdropridden by Smullen. Will come on a lot from last run when green. The one!!
17:40 – Arthur Guinness Handicap – WoodSophieSmile for Tony Martin will have a nice chance. Never raced on ground.
18:15 – Guinness EBF Maiden – Might not get involved. If I do I’ll back Agreement.
18:50 – Guinness Handicap – Curley Bill for Noel Mead and Fran Berry.
19:25 – Guinness Race – Unaccompanied is my bet of the day. 6/4 on is a bit tight though.
19:55 – Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase – Gone each way on Murchu.
20:25 – Guinness Q.R Handicap Hurdle – Treacys Hotel Boy catches the eye for Henry de Bromhead. 7lb claim off helps.
This yoke might go well around Galway today considering the conditions!
Day 3 of the festival was a long drawn out kick in the stones for myself. Sweet Refusal running into second at a big early price of 40/1 or 50/1, depending on where you do your business, helped to stem the flow.
It has rained quite heavily overnight and the going has changed once again. Apparently there is a tornado warning…. The Flat and Chase tracks are now both being described as Heavy whilst the hurdle track in regarded as Soft by the decision makers in Ballybrit. I imagine there could be a right few non runners today. A lot of these summer horses will get home on this type of ground, so there might not even be that many finishers in some races. Form on this ground is a must now when making selections.
With that in mind let’s have a look at todays action!
Perfect Pint Beginners Chase 13:50 – The favourite is Jim Culloty’s Spring Heeled who has form on this type of ground and is a talent in his on right. The money is coming for him on the exchanges this morning. A winter horse thats managed to get winter weather. Very difficult to oppose him now.
Guinness Mid Strength Novice Chase 14:30 – Rebel Fitz is returning for more Galway glory and an attempt at his third win in the spin after a good win at Killarney and a slightly harder fought victory at Ballinrobe on HEAVY ground. No value in the market though. No bet here for me. Observing!
Guinness Time Handicap 15:00 – This is a fairly open contest and bearing in mind that the flat track is heavy, these horses will struggle a lot. One with a bit of “cut-in-the-ground” form would be Measured Approval. He should travel on the ground and get home at the very least. Claims!
Guinness EBF Corrib Fillies Stakes 15:40 – Everyone seems to want to be on Yellowrosebud on the exchanges who has form in the book being second to Irish guineas frame-maker Rehn’s Nest. However, I am going to oppose the favourite here and side with Sendmylovetorose who has three wins on the spin in heavyish ground and has a 11lbs on the favourite (she’s a year younger but still!). She beat some good horses as a two year old and has every chance here on her seasonal debut.
Arthur Guinness Projects Novice Hurdle 16:15 – A fairly competitive novice hurdle. I’ve sided with Our man Zebo who won a decent maiden hurdle in Ballinrobe on ground with cut and a decent win at Wexford last time suggests he has potential.
Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap 16:55 – I’m going for Ted Veale here for two reasons. Tony Martin’s are in top form and Blackmail won handy yesterday so hopefully Ted can frank that form today! Also a distant second, but second nonetheless to Jezki at Punchestown in April. Each way alternative Hisaabaat.
IRFU Chartable trust Handicap 17:35 – Shalaman (NON RUNNER NOW)is the one I’ve gone for here. Each way alternative Mighty Whitey. Not too keen here though. Wide open.
Guinness Quarter Flat Race 18:10 – The unexposed Don’t Tell No One from the Weld yard is the current favourite. Owned and bred by RTÉ’s Brian Gleeson. If the money comes for it later in the day follow it! The alternative is Colin Bowe’s Marley Exit.
So that’s that for Day 4. Hopefully we can pull something out of the bag! Best of Luck!
Day 2 of the festival was most definitely a day for the bookies. Especially for me as I could only find Rathlin to steady the ship. Today is a bit of a head scratcher. Obviously the Galway Plate will be a great contest and always draws a big crowd to Ballybrit. However, there are a couple of wide open handicaps on the card leaving backers and layers alike a little perplexed. It might be tricky to find one today, but we’ll give it our best!
Lets have a run through the card!
100,000 Tote Pick 6 Guarantee Maiden Hurdle 15:00- Blackmail is the odds on favourite and has been a decent bumper performer. Second to Ted Veale last time in a flat race at Bellewstown beating the experienced Pique Sous into third. Hard to oppose him. For the sake of value an “easy-to-back” alternative is Some Article who is the nearest challenger in the market. The highlight of his for is a fourth place 9 and a half lengths behind good hurdler Un Atout. There has been money on the exchanges for it.
Bet 10 Get 10 At TheTote.com Handicap Hurdle 15:35 – After a spell over fences Six Stone Ned comes back to hurdling off a fair mark and has every chance. One with an each way chance at a bigger price is CourtnCatcher – only a 2lb rise after most recent second in Roscommon.
40,000 Tote Jackpot Guarantee Handicap Hurdle 16:00 – AHorseCalledMolly has been progressive since returning to the track from a set back and runs off off a handy weight getting my each way money. Not too keen though.
Tote Win 24% Better than Bookmakers Sp (Q.R.) Maiden 16:45- Army Ranger surely has to be the best bred horse in the race – out of a winning half sister to Rock of Gibraltar and by Gallileo. He should be a more relaxed animal this time – slightly green on debut even though second! Union Dues is not value!
Galway Plate 17:30 – Klepht from Tom Mullins’ yard for me in this. Good win in Punchestown in April. His last run can be regarded as a prep for this when alarmed by a ‘5’ in the form figures.
Trifecta Rollover Handicap 18:05 – Not too keen on anything here. Badger Daly deserves eachway respect and will benefit from a very nice draw. Frame claims as bookies paying to fourth.
Bet Online at the Tote.com Handicap 18:40 – Contemplating not having a bet here and just watching. Competitive market for a four horse race. I’m not keen enough on anything to get stuck in at the prices.
Tote Return All Profits To Irish Racing Maiden 19:10 – This should be fairly straight forward for Jayed Jidan, the long odds on shot. A euro or two each way on Sweet Refusal at a huge price might give you back a few quid if he gets into the frame!
Thats it for Day 3! Fingers crossed! Follow @turftalktom on Twitter for any updates throughout the day!
Order is restored at the Galway Festival as DKW takes his rightful place at the top of the trainers pile!
Day 1 of the Galway festival 2013 has come and gone and in the blink of an eye Dermot Weld, the King of Ballybrit, nails two races from seven in a fairly casual manner. The man’s a freak! If he is top trainer for the festival this year it will be his 27th time doing it…..that’s ridiculous.
We didn’t do too bad ourselves as Honourable Emperor ran into the each way money at a big price and Wicklow Brave nabbed the bumper to get the week off to nice start.
Let’s have a gander at today’s card to try and keep the momentum!
Topaz Novice Hurdle 17:05 – DKW said after the first yesterday that Diplomat won fairly easily and without performing to the best of his ability. With that in mind, if he is fit and well and runs today he is the obvious option again. If I was to pick one to oppose him it would be Elegant Statesman.
Latin Quarter Chase 17:40 – Small field here and the market suggests that there are only three with statistical chances. Of those the one I would prefer is the 7/4 favourite Rathlin.
Topaz EBF 2yo Fillies Maiden 18:10 – Weld and Smullen are back again with the odds on favourte here in the shape of Tarfasha. At her price I could not back her and so I’ve sided with Ballybacka Queen for a bit of value and she has a bit of form on others in the race.
Topaz Mile Handicap 18:45 – Fortify, who although carries a 5lb penalty still has a chance and I’d also give an each way chance to Campanology of Johnny Murtagh’s who will benefit from a handy weight and a nice draw.
Caulfieldindustrial.com EBF Maiden 19:15 – Pirate Cove is again the odds on favourite for Dermot Weld here and would look to be the one. If backing odds on favourites is not your thing, then keep the money in the pocket. She should get the job done.
Caulfield Industrial Athlone Handicap 19:45 – This looks to be a fairly open contest. I’ve gone for two. Knights Templar who has a bit of form this summer over a mile and steps back to 7 furlongs here. The other is Lily of Kenmare from Mick Halford. The draw is against her but I have a sneaking suspicion she could be worth an each way bet.
Caulfieldindustrial.com Handicap 20:15 – Two catch the eye here for each way bets. Course and distance winner Face Value definitely deserves some each way respect. Also the 9 year old Beau Michael ridden by an in form Conor King claiming 5lb off deserves attention from each way punters.
So thats it for Day 2. There will no doubt be a slightly sombre mood around Galway today as the racing community has lost one of it’s favourite sons. The legendary Colm Murray lost a long battle with Motor Neurone disease this morning. My thoughts and prayers are with his family and friends. May he rest in peace.
The very best of luck with your selections. Hopefully we can find a winner!
The Galway festival gets under way for seven days of great racing!
Hello there me auld segosha, it’s been too long! Yes, I made it back from my travels! In case you were wondering, I’ve been in Cuba for the past month travelling around trying to find myself! I’m still looking, but I did learn two valuable life lessons (1) Communism is very different in real life than how old Marxy planned it and (2) Cheap Rum gives you a bad hangover. But now I’m back, refreshed and rejuvenated, and ready to try and find a winner or two for the 7 day Galway festival!
Galway, the festival, is the best craic of all time with some of the most competitive racing of the summer. Galway, the track, is a little unusual. It’s about a mile and a quarter round with a lot of “undulations”. I use the quotation marks as perhaps these “undulations” would better be described as slightly slanting cliffs. The finish at Ballybrit is ridiculous. The say the hill in Cheltenham brings the best horse in the race to the front, or at least the one thats travelling the best. The hill in Galway, however, can really kill momentum and rhythm and often blows the race right open. Basically what I’m trying to say is the Galway track can often cause the punters to suffer, so don’t expect an easy ride this week, although DKW seems to have our backs!
With that in mind lets have a look at this evening’s card!
Galwaybayhotel.com Novice Hurdle 5:10 – Diplomat is the one to beat here and should get the job done for Weld and Walsh. He is being napped all over the place. I’m not going to oppose him as such but I’m just not backing him. His 8/11 price is most definitely not value, although I think he should win. Too risky for me. I’m going for a small each way bet in this on Honourable Emperor. The form with Green Dragon and King of the Picts with this fella is slightly underwhelming but it’s a small risk for a big reward to run into second or third. If he makes the frame consider it a bonus!!
Sean “The Budgie” Burgess Memorial Handicap Hurdle 5:40 – 23 runner handicap = each way play! I like two here. Hurricane Ridge from the Harrington stable has dabbled in both codes over his career but should be bang there today. Another is Habesh who carries a handy weight and has another 5 lbs claimed off him by Paddy Kennedy. Not too sure how the ground will suit but hopefully he can go well.
Claregalwayhotel.ie Maiden 6:10 – Weld’s Mustajeeb is the evens fav at the minute. I’ve gone for the more experienced Ballydoyle colt by the name of Friendship. I’d fancy his 6/4 chance. Beaten by a good horse in Exogenesis last time, this two year old is held in good regard at home and hopefully can beat this small field.
Connacht Hotel Handicap 6:45 – Call Me Bubbles the deserving favourite and Notable Graduate providing sturdy opposition in the market. There are a number here with statistical chances, so I’ve gone looking for some of the bigger prices available. John Nicholson provides the mare Knockcroghery who has struck a bit of form this summer. With the very able Rachel Blackmore claiming 7 lbs the weight becomes even more appealing to the punters eye. Ive gone each way on the mare but on merit Call me Bubbles should justify market favouritism.
Claytonhotelgalway.ie Handicap 7:15 – I’ve gone for the Bolger filly here in what is going to be a fairly competitive race. Strapless is coming from a yard in form and has class. She has no friends in the market at the minute and is available at 10’s or 12’s depending on where you do your business. I’ve gone each way on her but if you don’t fancy her Doc Holiday is an able alternative.
Galway Oyster Hotel Handicap 7:45 – Pay Day Kitten is the 2/1 fav at present. I’m contemplating not having a bet here as I think it could be a wise enough option. If you feel the need Great Explorer could be in the mix coming to the line although steps up the extra two furlongs in trip into unknown territory.
pillohotelgalway.com Bumper 8:15 – Weld has the favourite here in Martys Magic and the main market opposition is provided by the formidable bumper duo of Mullins Snr and Jnr in the form of Wicklow Brave. I’ve gone for the Mullins charge with an extra nibble on the Elliot trained Riverside city who also has friends in the market being well backed in to 5/1.
So thats it for Day 1, hopefully there is a winner there some where! I think I’m on the radio tomorrow so keep an eye on the twitter and I’ll let you all know what time! Best of luck with your selections.
Hillstar lands the gamble, beating Battle of Marengo for the Turf Talk faithful.
Good evening folks! I understand that it is quite late so I won’t go on for too long. I’ve had a few pints myself, having arrived in the lovely village of Little Coxwell in Oxfordshire so without getting into a drunken ramble I had best get down to business.
It is with great pride that I am attending Royal Ascot tomorrow. I am the first member of my family to attend the meeting since my Great Grandfather, Richard A. Duggan, won the Cork and Orrery Stakes (now the Diamond Jubillee stakes, tomorrows’ feature) with a colt called Solonaway in 1949. Hopefully we can be back where we belong and make it into the winners’ enclosure with a selection or two!
Lets get down to it!
14:30 Chesham Stakes (Listed) – Bunker is the market leader here having won his maiden over 6f fairly handy and running on coming to the line. Has a nice draw, but I’m not too strong on this race as a betting prospect and might have a small each way bet elsewhere. One I like with a bit of course form for an each way bet is Master Carpenter. Keep it small if your having a bet here.
15:05 Hardwicke Stakes (Gr.2) – A small field here. The one I am going for is Mount Athos who was a potential Gold Cup runner. The form is an unusual read with this fella but one win from one start this term at Chester and an impressive few runs last term shows he has the ability to take this.
15:45 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Gr.1) – There are a number of interesting runners here. Each way bets are the name of the game for me here. Obviously Society Rock is the one to beat. I’m preferring an each way bet on Slade Power. Sea Siren makes for an interesting alternative.
16:25 Wokingham Stakes (H’cap) – 7/1 the field, a wide open affair. I like Hitchens but suspect his weight might have caught up with him and could potentially be too much for him. Going each way again here as the prices allow it! I’ve had a small each way bet on three (is that allowed??). They are Nocturn, Louis the Pious and Poole Harbour. The third lad would please me most as he runs off a feather weight and if he makes the frame the champers will flow!
17:00 Duke of Edinburgh Handicap (H’cap) – Wide open again. I’ve gone each way on Caravan Rolls On and Opinion. Favouring the first fella as he has a bit of course and distance form.
17:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions) – Not too strong on anything here again. Cul Baire and Chiberta King catch the eye for an each way punt but keeping the money in the pocket is a shrewd option.
I think most of you can realise by now from my sentiment that tomorrow is not a punting day. Maybe have a small few quid here or there but hang on to what we’ve worked so hard for and enjoy the weekend/ pay the mortgage!! If you do have a bet then the very best of luck with your selections. Thanks again!
Roca Tumu gets up for the Turf Talk faithful at a big price!
Riposte, Roca Tumu and Van der Neer in the each way money turns what was going to be a nice few days racing, into a whopper week. I was particularly pleased with the big priced Roca Tumu getting the job done. The handicap he won at the Curragh will produce more winners yet and is well worth a look for any of you with a bit of foresight.
Obviously a very poignant day for the Cecil family and Warren Place team with Riposte winning the Fillies’ race impressively under Tom Queally. Himself was most definitely looking down with a smile.
Tomorrow is another day, so let’s run through the card to see if we can pick something to have a tilt at. Our weekend of indulgence is in the bag at this stage! Small bets only from here on in for me to try and nab a few bonuses to throw into the wheelbarrow with the rest of it!
14:30 Albany Stakes (Fillies’ Gr.3) – The market is headed up by Sandiva from the Fahey yard who has two impressive wins to her name this term. Most recently a decent Listed race at Naas. I’m going to oppose her here, however, and side with Lady Cecil’s Joyeuse. I am not picking her on the basis that she is Frankel’s half sister, although that pedigree would help. She is my selection mostly on merit. I, along with a lot of other people, was very taken by her maiden win at Lingfield last time. It was not a hot race by any stretch, but she did it well and looks to have class. She has more to give, and is my selection. Midnite Angel is the each way alternative.
15:05 King Edward VII Stakes (Gr.2) – I’m going against the grain here and opposing Battle of Marengo. I think he’s a useful colt and his 4th placed finish in the Derby clearly shows that. However, odds on is not value for me and I could not have him at the price he is. If he wins, then well and good, but backing him is not an intelligent investment at the price. I’m siding with Sir Michael Stoute’s Hillstar who should enjoy the extra two furlongs here. Decent value also sweetens the deal!
15:45 Coronation Stakes (Fillies’ Gr.1) – This is a pretty competitive race with two classic winners in Just The Judge and Sky Lantern coming back for another tussle. Call me crazy but I think going to oppose them both, even though I’m a big Sky Lantern fan. It is well known that Dermot Weld has said on several occasions that the cold spring had left a lot of his fillies more backward than usual for the time of year. With that in mind Big Break ran a stormer in the Irish guineas if she was not 100%. With the few weeks of nice weather helping her forward and the run under the belt, she will be cherry right for this. She is my selection. Each way selection is Rehn’s Nest who came home like a scalded cat in the Irish guineas and showed an impressive turn of foot. Her draw helps.
16:25 Wolferton Handicap (Listed) – Not too keen on anything here. Two for Two is back for more over this extended trip after a disappointing run having been hampered in the Hunt Cup. O’Meara is a shrewd operator and perhaps a small each way curiosity bet is the order of the day here. Nice draw, and potentially carrying a handy weight. That’s all I will be doing though. I’m a little clueless on this otherwise!
17:00 Queen’s Vase in Memory of Sir Henry Cecil (Gr.3) – Leading Light is the selection here. Wasn’t convinced about him up until his last run where Little White Cloud (a useful colt) came upsides him and he just changed gears and left him for dead. They haven’t gotten to the bottom of this fella yet and I would imagine Group 1 status beckons down the line. He carries a 4 pound penalty for a Gr.3 win the last day, but I still like him for this. Each way alternative would be Mister Impatience, second behind Ruler of the World at Chester being the highlight of his form.
17:35 Buckingham Palace Stakes (H’cap) – The market for this is wide open. That’s mostly because nobody has a clue! I could make a case for a few of them but I’m going each way on Jamesie who hasn’t shown too much this term but I wouldn’t be too worried about that. I saw him at the Curragh the last day and looked to be carrying a bit of condition and probably needed the run. He was second in this last year and is in with a squeak again. Another for an each way nibble is Smarty Socks who is drawn very wide and carries an extra 5 for a recent win but Tudhope and O’Meara have a ridiculous strike rate this season and should be respected. Also has course and distance form.
That’s it for Day 4. I’m in London now and heading to Ascot for Saturday! It’s my first time going so I can’t wait! Anyone from Channel 4 or AtTheRaces reading this, I’m available for interview!! (You should all tweet them and let them know that!)
Thanks a million for all of your kind words again this week, you’re a super bunch! The very best of luck with your selections tomorrow! A pleasure as always!
Duntle does the job for the Turf Talk faithful with Wayne Lordan in the plate.
I realise that the title isn’t great, but you get the jist of what I’m trying to tell you! If you won money today, and by the sounds of things a lot of you did, don’t get greedy tomorrow. Make sure you have some to spend your own way come the weekend instead of giving it back to the bookies! I don’t mean to be boring but it’s happened to me plenty of times where I’ve tried to turn myself into a millionaire when things are going well and more often than not the plan goes tits up. So just giving ye the heads up!
After a fantastic day today a lot of you seem to have landed the treble – a fiver paid in the region of 480 I think….depending on what prices you got! But well done, and hopefully we can find a few tomorrow!
14:30 Norfolk Stakes (Gr.2) – Theres a couple with claims here in this race for the two year olds. I really like Coach House and think he has a nice turn of foot. He was impressive in his three starts and is more experienced as a result. If you can get 11/4 I would take it, it”l be gone soon. The yard is red hot this week and this lad has every chance. Coulsty and No Nay Never are the challengers, but I’m with Ballydoyle here. Legend Rising could run into a place at a price.
15:05 Ribblesdale Stake (Fillies’ Gr.2) – Some people may consider me boring and predictable here but I’ve been very impressed by the market leader Alive Alive Oh this season. Third behind Magician in his winning maiden as a Two year old, won her own maiden handy and blew them out of the water in a listed race at Navan last time. Form is pretty rock solid and a win tomorrow would solidify the fact that she is a top notch filly. Should get the trip. Riposte is a little overpriced at 10’s and is an each way alternative, but the Stack charge is my selection.
15:45 Ascot Gold Cup (Gr.1) – This is a middling renewal of the Gold Cup in my opinion. Previous winners Rite of Passage and Colour Vision take part possibly only as shadows of their former selves (Colour Vision was lucky in the first place). The versatile Simenon is also a well fancied runner. However, my selection is Saddler’s Rock from the Oxx yard. He comes fresh, and this trip will suit him better. Jumps off the form book page for this at 8/1. 12 of the field are given chances statistically so the numbers suggest it won’t be easy, but he’s my guy for the big one.
16:25 Britannia Stakes (H’cap) – The Coolmore and Ballydoyle crew are absolutely punting Wentworth off the boards here probably, hence the price. 4/1 is not value for this race if you are living in the real world. I don’t have the confidence to get stuck into him. I’m looking further out the market and the one I instantly spotted was Roca Tumu. Won a pretty hot handicap the last day in the Curragh on Guineas day with several nice horses running behind including Machete Mark, Won Diamond (both run in this) and Sacred Dragon (remember that name, top class). Maputo also comes into the race with a nice bit of form. These are my each way selections.
17:00 Tercentenary Stakes (Gr.2) – No strong opinions here. Might not have a bet. Market suggests a good few have chances. Van der Neer is over priced based on a poor Irish Guineas run. Thats because Trading Leather went set a furious pace that didn’t suit. He may not get the extra two furlongs, but he’s over priced and may well be getting a few quid thrown on him out of curiosity! Indian Chief is probably the one he’ll have to pass.
15:35 King George V Stakes (H’cap) – Again not strong on anything here. Each way punts on Excellent Result and Soviet Rock are probably the way I’ll go, but in a very minor way.
PAY ATTENTION TO THIS BIT: There is a decent bit of rain forecast for South West London and the Ascot area tonight and early tomorrow. If the rain comes and the ground softens, a lot of this information becomes irrelevant and brings the bigger priced outsiders into play. Just giving you the heads up. The better horses win on better ground.
How many tweets does it take to get #TurfTalk trending in Ireland?? Can we do it?!
The very best of luck with your selections tomorrow. Day 3 of Cheltenham was a disaster for me, lets hope we can reverse that form tomorrow!
JP McManus’ Well Sharp lands the gamble for Turf Talk punters at an SP of 9/1.
With the good weather and a handful of winners at Day 1 of the Royal meeting, things are not looking too bad at all. I honestly thought today would not go as well as it did, but thats racing.
If you’ll allow me, I’m going to forgo the usual preamble tonight as we shore 276 sheep today on the farm in sweltering heat, and I am a little worse for wear as a result.
Let’s get down to business.
14:30 Jersey Stakes (Gr.3) – The obvious two head the market. It’s a case of who you want to side with. I’m going for Gale Force Ten. Why? Simply because his two most recent runs impress me more than Garswoods Guineas performance. I also think that the drop back to 7f will suit Gale Force Ten more. Even if you were to compare the highlights of both of their Two year old careers, I’d prefer Gale Force Ten. But, I’ve been wrong before! An each way alternative that stands out, with a nice high draw, is The Brothers War.
15:05 Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Fillies’ Gr.2) – I had the misfortune of being in Leopardstown the day Duntle had her win reversed via stewards enquiry having backed her. If you were there that day, I was the fella ‘effing and blinding in the betting ring after it was announced. She owes me one, and that is partly the reason why she is my selection. She also has course and distance form having won the Sandringham last year at this meeting. Here’s hoping she can right those wrongs of the stewards in Leopardstown tomorrow!
15:45 Prince of Wales’ Stakes (Gr.1) – Probably one of the bigger talking points of the day. Will Camelot bounce back? Probably not in my opinion, even though I really hope he does. However, I reckon Al Kazeem has the measure of what is the shining light of a fairly mediocre crop of 4year old colts, in Camelot. The Fugue makes an interesting altenative with her weight allowance, but the son of Dubawi should leave her in the ha’ penny place.
16:25 Royal Hunt Cup (H’cap) – I think I can join the majority of punters here when I confess to almighty God and to you, my Brothers and Sisters, that I have not got a breeze. Let’s go for the Hail Mary and try and land the big price. The two that I like for small each way punts, that have nice draws and coming into the race with a bit of form are Directorship and Elusive Time.
17:00 Queen Mary Stakes (Fillies’ Gr.2) – Oriel really sticks out here. Obviously beaten by Rizeena at Ascot last month over the same trip, but I consider her to be better than that form suggests. Ground may be too fast for her, but Bye Bye Birdie is my each way alternative.
17:35 Sandringham Handicap (H’cap) – Another hit and hope type of race. A wide open affair – 6/1 the field. Again, after my intense number crunching process (or closing my eyes and seeing what my finger lands closest to) I’ve come up with Nargys and Waterway Run for small each way tipples. If you are looking for a money making opportunity, this is not it.
If you thought today was tough to make money, it doesn’t bode well for tomorrow either I’m afraid. But we live in hope! Maybe our luck will continue for Day 2! The best of luck with your selections.
Day 1 of the Royal meeting gets underway tomorrow with three group 1 contests.
The Summer is passing by at a fairly strong pace and as the end of June draws ever nearer, it brings with it the pomp and circumstance that is Royal Ascot. However painful for us it might be to bear the “Fabulously British” flavour to the week on this side of the Irish Sea, the action on the track most definitely sweetens the deal.
There is more drink spilled at Cheltenham than there is drank at Royal Ascot, however, the “Equine Olympic” tagline often applied to the former can most definitely be associated with the latter, in the guise of a flat code equivalent. It’s set to be a fantastic week’s racing.
Tomorrow herald’s Day one of the Royal meeting and with the first three races being a hat-trick of group 1’s, the action will be fierce from the get go. I admit that I am a long way off being a flat racing aficionado, but for what it’s worth, the following are just a few things I’d like to point out for tomorrow.
14:30 Queen Anne Stakes (Gr.1) – The market leading colt is the American raider Animal Kingdom who is generally found around the 8/11 mark at the minute. The winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby and this years Dubai world cup is strongly supported based on that form and the money has been kept rolling in for him thanks to the racing media romanticising the arrival of this well travelled son of Leroidesanimaux. I like to consider myself a realist, and have not allowed myself to be swept away with the forced fairytale that some people are trying to conjure out of this fella’s chances. Fair play to connections for bringing him, and to borrow the well worn cliché, it would be great for racing if he could do the job. However, the two main elements of punting are the judgment of form and performance on one hand and the ability to seek out value on the other. Animal Kingdom is not a value bet in my opinion. Having finished exams I have moved back to Kilkenny, and those whispers on the wind don’t have very far to travel across county lines from Ballydoyle and into my ear. Surely a line can be drawn through Declaration of War’s run in the Lockinge as it had to be too bad to be true. Rumour has it the team at Ballydoyle had him extensively examined by vets to ensure a medical issue had not incurred the bad run, thats how surprised they were. I’d much rather have a tenner on him than a hundred on the yank horse. Each way chance lies with Sovreign Debt. Interesting to note Paddy Power have gone money back on all losing single bets if Animal Kingdom wins…..interesting.
15:05 King’s Stand Stakes (Gr.1) – This valuable 5f dash is not one to get stuck into methinks. Not only because there are several with chances, but also because getting beaten by a short head in a flash finish is a lot more difficult to stomach than being beaten by a length or a two. James Ryan tipped up Shea Shea here on Turf Talk back in March when he won the sprint at the festival at Meydan. He is 2/1 market leader for this. I’m going off on a valiant search for value here and a small each way bet on Medicean Man here is what has tickled my fancy. I’ve also got a bit of a soft spot for Sole Power but the fact that Gask’s charge has course form makes me side with him. Hopefully he can make me a few bob.
15:45 St. James’ Palace Stakes (Gr.1) – I’ve listened to so much analysis from pub talkers about Dawn Approach’s derby performance that I think I need to see psychiatrist. I will not be having a bet in this race, as I think I might have a mental breakdown if I watch it. I think Bolger’s should win. The Hannon’s and Richard Hughes are still bullish about Toronado even after a lacklustre guineas showing. If Dawn Approach is fit and well he should see off the others handy enough at what is now his preferred 1 mile trip, but Magician could give him a run for his money…..all of this is why I am going to sit back and watch it happen without any financial involvement!!
16:25 Coventry Stakes (Gr.2) – This 6 furlong challenge for the babies is dominated by three entries each from Balydoyle and the Hannon’s. Im siding with Championship here having been really impressed by his winning racecourse debut. Thunderstrike also sticks out at a biggish price for an each way nibble but I’m going for the son of Exceed and Excel on the nose.
17:00 Ascot Stakes (H’Cap) – I’ve always been told to steer clear of the Ascot handicaps as there have a habit of being quite toxic for punters. This field is an eclectic mix of National Hunt and Flat horses with the likes of 2012 Grand National and 2013 Pretemps final runner Junior taking part. I’m baking two; Midnight Oil who’s set to be ridden by Hughes in the Gigginstown colours, and Well Sharp ridden by Berry in the McManus colours. Slightly favouring the latter, in my opinion.
17:35 Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) – Sweet Jesus….a 5 furlong juvenile sprint with 27 runners. It will be worse than Newlands cross on a Friday night when they kick for the line. Traffic jams galore. This is probably going to be more about luck in running than actual ability. If I do have a bet it will be small and each way. Gosden’s Ben Hall stands out with a good high draw and a nice price for an each way bet. He may be a bit overwhelmed by the big field, but so will a lot of them. To be honest with you the more I look at it the more I think I’ll stay away from it. The market leader obviously has course form and deserves respect but absolutely nothing is certain in this one tomorrow. Stick a pin in it.
So that’s it for Day 1. I reckon it will be tough enough to make a few bob tomorrow so box clever and pay attention to any deals the bookies are offering. The very best of luck with your selections.
Turf Talk 